With 8% of the votes counted now, the latest projection shows the CDA pulling clearly ahead of Labor with 45 versus 40 seats in parliament. It's still too early to consider this matter settled but Labor has an uphill battle from here if it is to become the biggest party. The VVD is now at 28, the LPF at 9. Still comfortably enough to renew the current coalition, which might yet happen. If these results hold, the first attempt to form a government will be the Grand Coalition of CDA and Labor, which would have a very comfortable majority. Depending on where the CDA wants to go, it might let these talks founder and go for a new coalition with VVD-LPF. It's too soon to tell, but ideologically it would be a better fit.

The good news tonight is that the far left parties have not done as well as had been forecast. The neo-stalinist SP stays stable at 9 seats (which I still think is a scary level of support for a totalitarian party) while the GreenLeft loses 2 seats on current projections. Overall there's still a center-right majority in the new parliament with CDA, VVD and LPF. The only question is whether they can form a government together.