The votes are being counted, and the first prognosis based on actual results has been published. It still puts CDA and Labor neck-and-neck with CDA ahead by one seat in parliament. The main shift compared to the exit poll is that both the VVD and the LPF do better (27 and 10 seats, respectively) while several left-wing parties come out worse. It still does not fundamentally change the arithmetic of coalitions though. The tenor of the commentary thus far has been that the most likely outcome will be a CDA-Labor coalition, as CDA-VVD did not get the mandate it asked for. Adding the LPF to the mix is becoming a bit more likely though, with a potential CDA-VVD-LPF coalition now projected to get 80 seats. If the LPF actually manages to get 10 seats it would be a victory of sorts for them, as they had been on the brink of extinction in October.

More projections later.