November 06, 2002
The inevitable election commentary

I suppose I should add some comments about the mid-term elections in the US, since it seems to be the hot topic of the day. First of all, I'm glad the Republicans did well. I'd also like to extend my congratulations to my loyal readers in Maryland who'll be delighted with the Ehrlich win (whoo-hooo), as well as the Missourian who forgot to get her absentee ballot. (*ahem*) But all's well that ends well, I suppose. Be more careful next time.

At the time of this writing, the Senate race in South Dakota has not been conceded yet. Johnson, the incumbent Democrat leads the Republican challenger Thune by 167.481 to 166,954. The Libertarian Evans managed to pick up a few thousand votes, just enough to spoil the Thune's chances. What's even sadder is that he suspended his race on October 17th and endorsed John Thune. I don't know whether the people who voted for him were extremely absentee or postal voters, or whether they were the Libertarian ideologues who'd rather have Utopia than something that's second-best. I just hope this thing doesn't end up being a rerun of the 2000 Florida debacle. Don't litigate this race to hell and back. I hope whichever candidate (most likely Thune) who ends up behind after a few days will have the grace to concede. It would be in keeping with the Republicans' message of serious politics, rather than the Democrats' poltics-at-any-cost sleaze. While the Republicans may end up with one seat less in the Senate, a gracious concession would win them points longer-term. Let the Democrats be the Nasty Party.

Perhaps I am too optimistic though. In any case, the Republicanization of the South continues. I am still amazed at how many Democrats manage to get elected in the South. Those roots go deep. Very deep. But here too, as in Lautenberg's New Jersey and Mondale's Minnesota, the Democrats are the party of the past. The future is Republican in the South, and gains made by Jeb Bush amongst Latinos show that the GOP can reach out beyond its caricature white aging businessman core. Georgia completely flipped to the Republican Party this cycle after more than a century of Democrat control. One thing I am wondering about is what this means for the Republican coalition. Did the GOP win because of its socially conservative message or because of its economically liberal message? (I know, I am fighting a futile campaign to return the word liberal to its original, non-pejorative meaning.) If you will, it is a conflict between the Values of Religion and the Values of Investing. The increase in share ownership is a trend favorable to Republicans, which is predisposing swathes of suburban knowledge economy workers to the Republican party on economic issues. They're the Investor Values people, and they don't much care for the social conservatism of the Religious Values people. Both currently share the Republican tent, and neither has a place to go unless the Democrats come to their economic senses and dump the last vestiges of sneaking socialism in their program. The best way for the Democrats to win back a majority is to stop business-bashing and embrace the free market. Of course, they're not going to become Libertarians, but a centrist position with a non-government tilt would do really, really well. It also requires the Democrats to get serious about the war. The survival of America is at stake. Chanting Vietnam-era slogans is not going to dispel the Islamofascist threat, and the American people know that. The Vietnam-era slogans condemned the people of Vietnam to communist tyranny. I'd like to avoid having a Islamofascist tyranny in America. Get serious.

I haven't seen much commentary yet on this (then again, I don't spend all day reading blogs, although it sometimes seems that way), but there has been a Republican revival in the northeast. Pataki won big in New York, Republicans won gubernatiorial races in Connecticut, Maryland, New Hampshire and Massachussetts, while they might win in Vermont too. Sununu won the Senate race in New Hampshire. Sure, New England is not going to become a Republican hotbed because of this, but it does mark a revival after some poorer showings recently.

So what should President Bush do with his new majority? Two things: ruthlessly prosecute the war against the Islamofascists, and give America another tax cut.

Posted by qsi at November 06, 2002 10:27 PM | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

The American southeast has always been more conservative than the northeast. During the past 35 years, southern democrats have gradually redefined themselves as republicans (cp Strom Thurmond, South Carolina.) Surviving southern democrats are conservative, and, in some cases, as good as Republican (cp Zell Miller, Georgia.) On the other hand, republican success at the state level in the northeast is very interesting.

Posted by: ellie on November 7, 2002 04:29 AM

Well, New England is historically Republican the same way the South used to be historically Democratic. In both cases, the roots of this party loyalty go back to the Civil War. Every New England town has a somber monument to its sons who died for the Union in the Civil War.

These days, New Hampshire is extremely conservative, Maine is full of ornery independents, and the same Vermont that has just elected a Republican governor also re-elected the House's only Socialist member in a landslide.

Oh, and Massachusetts' last two governors have been moderate Republicans.

So, this is hardly a landslide. More like a sinkhole, really.

Posted by: vaara on November 7, 2002 09:19 AM
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