February 19, 2003
Stupidity versus malice

Hanlon's Razor states that one should never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. I am invoking the Razor on behalf of Gerhard Schröder and the Czech op-ed I blogged about yesterday. I do think the comparison with the Warsaw Pact is on target in that the effects of the policies of the Franco-German Axis are trying to bring about a rift between the US and Europe. I think one should differentiate between the Germans and the French though in this regard. I don't think that Schröder actually set out to create such a rift, at least not as a conscious bit of policy making, as also pointed out by Ralf Georgens on his blog. Instead, it is Schröders horrendous economic record and his need for a diversion that set him on the path to confrontation with the US. The electoral campaign of last fall has been well-documented, and Schröder has paid the price. Germany's weight in international affairs has diminished drastically. The tax hikes and spending cuts completely gutted Schröder's support on the domestic policy front, and with his international influence waning, he became easy prey for the French. Chirac gave Schröder a way out: support the French anti-American line and appear to be relevant again. It also fit well with Schröder's earlier anti-American rhetoric during the election campaign. The real villains in this piece are definitely the French, who for decades have been playing the spoiler role in international affairs, trying to undermine American foreign policy with a obsessive, maniacal passion that is of clinical proportions.

In the malice stakes, France is way ahead of Germany on this one. The latter just gets the stupidity award. Blame for this sad state of affairs in Germany must go beyond merely Schröder though. The opposition parties of the CDU/CSU and FDP are culpable also. The CDU now claims they would have signed the letter of support for the US that caused Chirac's fit the other day, but any support for the US during the election campaign was sorely lacking. One might ascribe this to an electorate hostile to the idea of supporting the US, but that's just part of it. No major politician in Germany even tried to make the case for the US, certainly not during the election campaign. This gave the proverbial floor to the anti-American voices. There was no debate; it was all one-sided, and the leadership of the CDU/CSU and the FDP failed miserably. Sometimes political leaders have to lead and take a stand for what's right. I have no doubt that there are plenty of politicians within the CDU/CSU who are the heirs of the pro-American Atlanticist tradition of Helmut Kohl, Franz-Josef Strauß and Hans Dietrich Genscher. But by keeping quiet they lost the argument by default. And that's pretty stupid too.

Schröder can no longer count on his anti-American position to hang on his support. The polls have probably gone as low for the SPD as they ever will. It's now down to the resolute vote-SPD-no-matter-what vote. This gives an opening to the opposition to exploit Schröder's internationally weak position to bring some semblance of sanity back into German politics. Let's hope for Gemany's sake they are willing and able to take up the challenge.

Posted by qsi at February 19, 2003 10:57 PM | TrackBack (1)
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Comments

Interesting, but on a minor note, the link formatting failed to cross the Atlantic as desired.

Cheers

Posted by: J.M. Heinrichs on February 20, 2003 01:37 AM

Oops... should be fixed now.

Posted by: qsi on February 20, 2003 06:05 AM

Thanks for the link.

As for the conservatives smarting up:


Schroeder Doesn't Speak for All Germans

by the chairwoman of the Christian Democrats (CDU)

Posted by: Ralf Goergens on February 20, 2003 10:20 PM

Gerhard Schröder certainly doesn't speak for all Germans. But considering that his party received only 38.5% in the Parliamentary Elections 2002 there are nonetheless over 70% of the German population supporting his stand on Iraq and his foreign policy in general. Yes, he won the election also because he promised not to push Germany in any kind of adventure concerning Iraq but he did not move a bit from this position after his victory. Germany and the majority of the European (if not the World's) population is opposed to that war which will be fought only ´because of oil.
Americans should ask themselves if they wanted to die their sons and daughters fighting for America's BigBusiness, the Oil and weaponry industries. The only ones who really profit from that war are those who own the companies and crave for more and more political control.

Posted by: UnitedforPeace on March 7, 2003 06:23 PM

The only goal of US foreign policy now is to destroy the European Union, that is becoming too strong and so too dangerous !

The method is simple, divide and rule !

France is an anti-american country.
Germany is manipulated by France and
Poland is as usual persecuted by France and Germany.
Divide and rule, that's the only purpose of this article.

But US will fail , because Europe is build on frienship and tolerance (after 2000 years of wars) while US policy is build on money ,power and oil .


PACE ! (As italian people says !)
And just take care, USA are becoming xenophobe and intolerant to free opiion, and the rest of the world is looking that with fear ...

If you are the stronger, you have to be the fairest, or you would be hated ...

Posted by: myrddin on June 27, 2003 09:51 PM
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