Hanlon's Razor states that one should never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. I am invoking the Razor on behalf of Gerhard Schröder and the Czech op-ed I blogged about yesterday. I do think the comparison with the Warsaw Pact is on target in that the effects of the policies of the Franco-German Axis are trying to bring about a rift between the US and Europe. I think one should differentiate between the Germans and the French though in this regard. I don't think that Schröder actually set out to create such a rift, at least not as a conscious bit of policy making, as also pointed out by Ralf Georgens on his blog. Instead, it is Schröders horrendous economic record and his need for a diversion that set him on the path to confrontation with the US. The electoral campaign of last fall has been well-documented, and Schröder has paid the price. Germany's weight in international affairs has diminished drastically. The tax hikes and spending cuts completely gutted Schröder's support on the domestic policy front, and with his international influence waning, he became easy prey for the French. Chirac gave Schröder a way out: support the French anti-American line and appear to be relevant again. It also fit well with Schröder's earlier anti-American rhetoric during the election campaign. The real villains in this piece are definitely the French, who for decades have been playing the spoiler role in international affairs, trying to undermine American foreign policy with a obsessive, maniacal passion that is of clinical proportions.

In the malice stakes, France is way ahead of Germany on this one. The latter just gets the stupidity award. Blame for this sad state of affairs in Germany must go beyond merely Schröder though. The opposition parties of the CDU/CSU and FDP are culpable also. The CDU now claims they would have signed the letter of support for the US that caused Chirac's fit the other day, but any support for the US during the election campaign was sorely lacking. One might ascribe this to an electorate hostile to the idea of supporting the US, but that's just part of it. No major politician in Germany even tried to make the case for the US, certainly not during the election campaign. This gave the proverbial floor to the anti-American voices. There was no debate; it was all one-sided, and the leadership of the CDU/CSU and the FDP failed miserably. Sometimes political leaders have to lead and take a stand for what's right. I have no doubt that there are plenty of politicians within the CDU/CSU who are the heirs of the pro-American Atlanticist tradition of Helmut Kohl, Franz-Josef Strauß and Hans Dietrich Genscher. But by keeping quiet they lost the argument by default. And that's pretty stupid too.

Schröder can no longer count on his anti-American position to hang on his support. The polls have probably gone as low for the SPD as they ever will. It's now down to the resolute vote-SPD-no-matter-what vote. This gives an opening to the opposition to exploit Schröder's internationally weak position to bring some semblance of sanity back into German politics. Let's hope for Gemany's sake they are willing and able to take up the challenge.