Showdowns in France and Britain
Two governments in Europe are faced with a challenge from organized labor that threatens the economic vitality of the two countries. The strikes in France are following the well-established pattern with strikes causing maximum disruption. The truckers' strike affects not just the employers, but the truckers are actively blockading choke points in traffic, trying to bring the country to a halt. A similar, bigger wave of protest brought down the last right-of-center government in the mid-1990's. The 1996 strike is thought to have cost France about 0.6% of GDP growth, which is significant especially in slow-growth Europe. This time, the government looks to be handling the situation a bit better, by taking surprising line that the rule of law cannot be undermined by wild strikes. How the current wave of strikes will be important in determining the future course of developments in France, as it will show whether the rule of law can actually be upheld there. If the government fails to break the strikers' blockades (if necessary by sending in the army to clear them), France is in for another wave of union militancy and more economic stagnation. The blockades have nothing to do with the right to strike; they are means of depriving others of their freedom to go about their business. The government cannot allow the unions to get away with this again. It seems the government is taking a harder line, and that unions are less feisty now, so there is some hope.
Meanwhile, across the Channel, the British government is also faced with a new wave union activism. Gordon Brown's promise of a huge increase in government funds for the public sector has whetted the unions' appetite for huge pay increases. The firefighters are demanding a 40% pay rise, and are refusing to change their arcane and archaic working practices. The union is now led by a radical socialist, who traces his roots to the Scargillite union militancy of the 1970's that pretty much bankrupted Britain. It was Margaret Thatcher who broke the back of these marxist/trotskyite/leninist (take your pick) union leaders and freed the economy. The economic revival of Britain since then is in no small measure due to the reduction of union militancy and also a decline in the relevance of the union movement as a whole. This was the bedrock upon which the Thatcherite revival of the British economy was founded, and it is also the bedrock upon which Tony Blair has been able to build his reputation for economic competence (despite the many tax rises he's pushed through). If he lets the unions turn the clock back, the health of the British economy and Blair's re-election prospects are in grave danger.
So while in Britain the unions are trying to turn the clock back, in France it's a question of getting the sand out of the gears of the clock to try to get it moving again. The outcome of these battles between governments and unions will show in which directions European economies are likely to develop.
Posted by qsi at November 26, 2002 07:35 PM
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Interesting thought concerning Blair's electoral future. Who do you think would replace him at the head of Labour? Or will the Tories, like Lazarus, rise from the dead?
Watching Blair, who is both a valuable ally and an amazingly slippery political tactician, is more fun than watching Bush, who lacks a worthy opposition. New Labour is a train wreck for Britain, but none of the flying debris seems to hit Blair.
When he gives the Fire Brigades a 16% increase with no change in their slacker work rules will he get hit or will it require some more crippling union activity?