I haven't been able to keep track of either the blogosphere or the wider news over the past week, but it does appear that news of Schröder's problems has become bigger news internationally. The latest poll results show the enormous beating he is taking. The latest two polls of the 21st of November show the SPD on 30% and 29% respectively, down about 10% from the election result. The CDU/CSU is up about 10% to 48%.

In the regional polling data, the two relevant states are Lower Saxony (Niedersachen) and Hessen, both of which hold state-wide elections on February 2nd. In Hessen the ruling CDU/FDP coalition is comfortably ahead, while in Lower Saxony the CDU is polling substantially higher than the SPD. This is Schröder's home state, which has been held by the SPD since the 1990 election when it gained 48% of the vote; polls now put it at 37%. Based on these polling results, the SPD would be kicked out of office there. This would make governing for the federal government even more difficult, as it would enhance the majority in the upper chamber of parliament (Bundesrat) of the CDU/CSU and FDP-governed states.

The new federal government is looking shaky, but at the moment I don't yet see a catalyst that would lead to its fall. The SPD will be keen to avoid a new election, but the Greens aren't doing too badly in the polls. They'll be worried that the Schröder millstone will start to drag them down too. What is required is an issue on which the Greens can escape from the coalition. When the liberation of Iraq starts, the the use of American bases in Germany could provide just the right excuse. The Greens can pander to their anti-American base, and Schröder will be caught between a rock and a hard place: either support UN-sanctioned action against Iraq, or cause further damage to Germany's international reputation. If he chooses the first course of action, he'll upset the Greens. If he opts for the second, he may hope for a revival of the anti-American boost he got just before the election, but I don't think it's going to happen. The German electorate has at the margin become more aware of the price to be paid in its international reputation, and Schröder's credibility has effectively been destroyed. It will be seen as a desperate political maneuver rather than a principled stand.

It will all depend on whether the Greens want to be in an unpopular government, or whether they prefer to keep their electoral base by moving to the opposition.