About a month after the close election victory of the Red-Green coalition in Germany, the reality of what this means is beginning to sink in, and German voters aren't too happy about what they've done to themselves. In the first monthly update of the Politbarometer, broadcast on the German ZDF network, the governing coalition has lost considerable ground.

In terms of political mood, the SPD loses 2.5% compared to the election, while the CDU/CSU gains a massive 6.5% to poll at 45%. The FDP loses 1.4% to stand at 6%. This would have given the CDU/CSU with the FDP a clear majority. But the "mood" poll is only a proxy for the immediate short-term mood, and adjustments are made for the "Sunday Question" (elections are always on Sundays), when people are asked whom they would actually vote for, not whom they like best at the moment. The Sunday Question is less volatile, but shows that here too the CDU/CSU would gain compared to the election. It would leave the two competing blocks still very close together, but it looks as though the current government would have been voted out if the election were held this weekend.

The differences between East and West Germany are also big. What is amazing is that in what used to be West Germany, the CDU/CSU would poll 48%, a result that would have been unimaginable for many years. The reality of the poor relationship with the US is also having repercussions, with the SPD losing a lot of support, although it is still in the lead.

Another shift that has taken place is the in Iraq-question. Whereas at the beginning of September 53% of those polled were against German participation of US military action (with a UN mandate), that percentage has now fallen to 43%. Just over half (51%) of those polled now favor Germany participation if the US gets a UN mandate. Only 4% favor German help regardless. On the question of the relationship with the US, 65% of Germans still apparently delude themselves that relations are good, while 33% show a sense of realism and call the relations bad now. This is compared to 76%/20% in September and 88%/9% in May. It is clear the majority of Germans still have not grasped the long-lasting damage that has been done.

One poll does not make a trend, but it does seem as though the Germans are less than delighted with the election result now that they have had time to reflect upon it, and have been bombarded with proposals for new taxes. Also a glimmer of realism is dawning on the foreign policy issues. Big disillusionment with the Red/Green government is nothing new. After Schröder's first victory four years ago, the ruling parties quickly started to sink in the polls once they started to govern. The only thing that kept the losing streak from continuing was the implosion of the Christian Democrats, who became embroiled in the endless sleaze-pit of illegal campaign donations that took place under Chancellor Kohl. For a while, the very survival of the CDU as a political force was in doubt. Anyway, poor polls and poor state election results are nothing new for the Red/Green coalition, and it looks as though we are heading for a repeat of the last four years in this regard. If the CDU can avoid self-destruction, it should be well-placed to give the government a hard time. There are more than enough problems for the government to deal with, and they're not dealing with them very well. There are some state elections coming up in Lower Saxony (Schröder's home state) and in Hessia on February 2nd. This could provide the first electoral setback for the government at the state level. Hessia is currently governmed by the CDU, which won the state after Schröder's first election victory four years ago. Lower Saxony is an SPD stronghold, but bears watching.

Givent the miniscule majority the SPD and Greens have in parliament, any controversial issues (Iraq will come up at some point, and there are others too) could lead to the calculation within either of the two parties that it might be better tactically to allow the government to fall rather than to persist in the coalition. The logic can be convoluted, but by causing the government to fall over a hot issue, the governing party causing it can sometimes gain in popularity. This has happened at times in Dutch elections, although deft maneuvering is required, as the opposite effect also takes place.

It's going to be an interesting period in German politics. I still stand by my prediction that this government won't last the full four years.